In part 1 of Management Lessons I we looked at action orientated bias playing out in the knife fight scene. In this installment we’ll look at stability bias, or the general tendency towards inertia when presented with a choice loaded with uncertainty — which seems to be the standard situation these days.
In the cliff jump scene Butch and Sundance are cornered on a cliff-top after being pursued by Pinkertons in response to their latest train robbery. Out numbered and out maneuvered, their chances look grim. In an inspiration Butch proposes they jump to the river below and swim to safety. Sundance initially refuses and when pressed admits he can’t swim. To which Butch replies “Why you crazy, the fall will probably kill you.”
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Why does Sundance resist the leap off the cliff? There is no chance of escape and it is certain that he and Butch will be either killed or captured — Sundance acknowledges this. Yet he still seem quite ready to stay and fight, despite the surety that it will end badly for him. And how often have we seen exactly the same behavior from our peers or even ourselves? Stability biases – a tendency towards inertia in the presence of uncertainty. McKiney places behaviors such as a preference for the status quo, inability to abandon prior investments — and hoped-for return — of time or effort, amd sticking with an initial strategy (Sundance: fight it out) in the face of changing circumstances. One reaction to these types of biases is a misplaced concern of consequences of the new course of action. In Sundances case it is the fear of drowning — perhaps valid, but not of immediate relevance to their current situation. Only if they make the leap and survive the fall — to big ifs — will that come into play. And when weighed against the certain death or incarceration of their current course, a concern of no real relevance to their current predicament.
These types of biases — stability or the action-oriented biases discussed in the prior installment — will always be present in decision making situations. Recognizing their presence is the first step to overcoming their harmful effects. The biggest warning sign is when all agree a course of action is just common sense. Albert Einstein probably put it best: Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen. Next up we’ll look at interest and pattern-recognition biases in one of the movies final scenes.
